Everything happens for a reason.

This is not a political blog but it's about what Quebeckers want. And yesterday what they wanted was change. A change few could have predicted when the federal election was called on March 26th.

I am not a political scientist, a pollster or a party strategist so I won't claim to know exactly what happened over the past five weeks. Instead, I'll simply refer to a post I wrote on March 23rd titled "Say one thing. Say it well." in which I argued that campaigns have a way of getting off message even if the rule of effective communications is to deliver a single-minded message and to deliver it in a way that engages the receiver. Looking back, one has to conclude that this 'boring' campaign stayed essentially on message. Except, for some, the message didn't stick.

The Conservatives

The Conservatives began this campaign by claiming that anything short of a majority would create greater economic risk and uncertainty. And Harper started off by repeating the word 'coalition' as the worse thing that could happen to Canada. In Québec, he dismissed it as a 'coalition de broche à fouin" - one made with haywire. It's an argument the Conservative base found compelling. It seems disillusioned Liberals did too.

The Bloc Québécois

The Bloc Québécois spent most of the campaign talking about Québec as per its uninspired slogan ‘Parlons Qc’ without talking about its end goal. Only when it was evident that the same old 'chicanes' with Ottawa weren't sticking this time around did sovereignty return to the narrative. And when it did, it brought back Jacques Parizeau. A week before the vote, Le Journal de Montréal ran this photo of Parizeau on its front page warning Quebeckers about a politician who smiles too much - an image that's worth a thousand words. Actually, it's an image that reminds many of the few memorable words an angry Parizeau said after losing the last referendum.

The Liberals

The Liberals' message was simple enough: Harper can't be trusted with the economy and with power. If the message had a chance to resonate, the messenger did not. Two years of attack ads certainly did not help. As it's often said, if you don't define your brand someone else will.

The NDP

The NDP started with its usual message and realized after the leaders' debates that the medium had become the message. The medium smiled, danced with a cane and came across as genuinely happy to be where he was.

Over the coming weeks, political analysts will tell us what really happened and it's sure to be complex. I think it's quite simple and it's what happens when very few care about something they did not want in the first place. Add to this that the vast majority of voters don't make the effort to study party platforms. Instead they vote based on what they see and feel.

André Pratte, chief editorial writer at La Presse summed it up in last Saturday’s Globe and Mail when he wrote:

The fact that the NDP Leader decided to go through an electoral campaign while recuperating from cancer and a broken hip brought him a lot of sympathy. His strong performances at the televised debate in French and during a popular talk show on Radio-Canada showed him as someone committed to social justice, close to ordinary people and equipped with a good sense of humour.

Suddenly, Quebeckers began referring to the NDP Leader as “ Jack.” In Québec, people calling a politician by his first name means that he has struck an emotional chord. These days, Quebeckers don’t say they’ll vote for the NDP or for candidate so and so. With an air of defiance and fun, they announce they’ll vote for “ Jack.”

Defiance and fun

Voting for Jack instead of for his party or his candidate elected Ruth Ellen Brosseau, an assistant manager at a university pub in Ottawa, in a central Quebec riding that is 98 per cent francophone even though, according to the Canadian Press, the party has acknowledged she has difficulties in French, spent a week in Vegas during the campaign and never spoke to the media. She won with a 6,000 majority.

French mathematician and physicist Blaise Pascal provided a simple explanation four centuries ago: The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing of.

Comments

[Dianne Eastman]

I for one am grateful that Quebec voted with its heart this time. And joined with NDP Canadians of the ROC in the long fight for social democracy. Together we might just make it next election.

[François La Roche]

Jean-François Lisée has a good explanation this morning on his blog on lactualite.com (in French): http://www2.lactualite.com/jean-francois-lisee/la-grande-evasion/8852/

Can't wait to see the spin each "winning" parties will put on these results over time.